For the manager, economic activity will suffer a lot until at least April with the worsening of the pandemic. Thereafter, the “vaccination campaign must accelerate substantially”. And the expectation is that the elderly will be vaccinated as early as May, with “hospitalizations and deaths collapsing at the turn of the semester”.
In terms of the effect on the economy, the positive effects should be felt in services to families, such as food, tourism, transportation, services, people and education. “GDP should take a leap in the third quarter of 2021”, says the house in a report.
For XP Asset, the schedule was severely hampered and delayed by the difficulty of importing inputs (IFA) in January. However, the Butantan Institute has normalized both import and production and has already delivered 28 million doses.
Fiocruz, on the other hand, is at a much slower pace, and still has difficulties in relation to the IFA. Imports are hampered by the epidemic in India. Still, between inputs and doses already imported, total supply of 36 million doses by May.
Pfizer’s vaccines are not expected to arrive until June. “It would be unnecessary, but all the help is worth due to the risks surrounding Fiocruz’s production,” he says.
For XP analysts, the vaccination campaign “has everything to be a success and cause hospitalizations and deaths to plummet at the turn of the semester, making room for a strong economic reopening”. The risks are “concentrated on the effectiveness of the vaccine against new strains”.
Content originally published by Valor PRO, Valor Econômico’s real-time news service
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