March was marked in Brazil as the deadliest month of the Covid-19 pandemic, with daily records of deaths that leave the average above 3 thousand per day. In addition to the number, new ones infected by SARS-CoV-2 exceed 85 thousand per day.
The expectation that this situation will change this month is not certain. According to experts heard by R7, as long as the transmission remains at the current level, deaths will continue to grow. But, they believe that the deaths will not reach the 5,000 daily, as it happened in the United States. On February 12, the United States recorded 5,463 deaths in 24 hours, according to the American newspaper The New York Times.
For Roberto Kraenkel, professor at Unesp and who is part of the Covid-19 BR Observatory, the situation cannot continue as it is. “It is difficult to know whether we will reach up to 5,000 daily deaths. It would be guesswork. If nothing is done, yes it is possible. But, for better or worse, when things start to go up a lot until the most denialist mayor in the world, he starts to do something. If not, there will be people dying in the middle of the street ”, says the specialist.
Infectologist Marcelo Burattini, from Escola Paulista de Medicina (EPM / Unifesp), believes that the trend is that the numbers will start to get a little more controlled. “The record of deaths is a consequence of the record of cases with the progressive precariousness of the health care system. The trend is a stabilization and then a fall, but still with high numbers, due to the curve of the virus itself. Only that we will have an increase in cases in the future if the form of action does not change ”, explains the doctor.
Burattini recommends clear actions to reduce transmission rates in Brazil. “In the phase we are in, we have to keep safe distances, wear masks every time we leave the house, just go out for what is really necessary, avoid crowding, use alcohol gel to do hand hygiene and get the right information and not from social networks ”, warns the infectologist.
Why the more than 325,000 victims of Covid-19
The lack of preventive measures and of coherent and effective communication are pointed out by the specialists as determinant for the almost 330 thousand deaths. “It is very easy to say that the population is irresponsible, when it was not informed with the necessary intensity and consistency. We spent basically the whole year only with restriction and an effective clarification campaign was not carried out. We have conflicting opinions, promises of drugs that don’t work, promises of vaccines that don’t exist. This all leads to confusion and makes the population feel free to do whatever they want to do ”, says Burattini.
Roberto Kraenkel believes that the lack of concern with prevention is the most serious in Brazil. “We were unable to get support for taking preventive actions. There is a central factor for growth, which was the emergence of the Brazilian variant, which is more transmissible and which accelerated the epidemic. After what happened in Manaus in January, nothing was done to prevent the virus from leaving there. The planes continued to be full, leaving there for all of Brazil. It is evident that it was going to spread ”, says the professor.
Vaccines are the solution for the future, not the present
The control of transmission and the pandemic occurs through mass vaccination, but the population’s immunization is a measure of infection control, not to solve the current situation.
“Vaccination started late and it is important to vaccinate people as soon as possible, to save lives and prevent the moment from happening again now. Being very realistic, to solve the almost 4 thousand deaths per day, it is not with the vaccine that it solves, it is with social isolation ”, emphasizes Kraenkel.
The infectologist at EPM / Unifesp points out that, although immunization is important for the future, it does not mean that the virus will stop circulating. “Assuming that we get what the Ministry of Health is proposing, with the vaccines that we have CoronaVac and Oxford, the immunization will not be total. If the population thinks that by taking the vaccine, it can act as it did this summer, we will have a resurgence of the epidemic again because the virus will continue to circulate. We may not arrive at the numbers now, but we will have high numbers of cases ”, points out Burattini.
The end is far away
The delay in the application of immunizers and actions indicate that Brazilians will still lose sleep over the pandemic for a while. “Unfortunately, another year we still suffer from covid. Do we need to understand why these people are leaving home? What is the need for this person to leave the house? What is the guidance I need to give so that this person can reduce the risk of contracting the infection as much as possible ”, reaffirms Burattini.
“The situation at the moment is very bad. In fact, there was no real effort to avoid the situation we are in or to put food on people’s tables. We will need to be more effective in containing the disease and the social problem ”, concludes Kraenkel.
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