ICU admissions below 100, according to estimates. “First phase of the deflation went well” | Covid-19

Next week there will be even fewer hospitalized patients in Portugal with covid-19 and the number of beds needed in intensive care units (ICU) for these patients should be below 100. These are the forecasts of the Portuguese Association of Hospital Administrators (APAH), which are more optimistic than last week’s prospects, when it was feared that the lack of continuity would bring about a slowdown in the breakdown of hospitalizations. “Fortunately, it was like this”, says the president of APAH, Alexandre Lourenço, explaining: “The first phase of the deflation, namely with the reopening of pre-school and 1st cycle, went well.” APAH estimates are, in the most optimistic scenario, that next week there will be 318 people hospitalized with covid-19 and, in the worst scenario, 358. In ICUs, with the need for mechanical ventilation, the perspective is that hospitalizations will oscillate between 88 and 95, when last week the estimate was between 152 and 160 cases.

Despite warning that it is necessary to “wait a little longer to see the effects of transmission” in a period of uncertainty, since the effects on hospitals are always felt a few days ahead of the measures, Alexandre Lourenço is more optimistic than last week. “It became clear that the situation is perfectly controlled in hospitals. There is no reason why they are not fully functioning in assisting non-covid patients ”, he says.

The president of APAH explains, in part, these good results with what he says is “the clear information used by the Government, explaining that this depends on the responsibility of each one”, but warns that nothing is definitely won and that this Easter period going through is particularly sensitive. “It is natural that at Easter we will have a setback. Hopefully not, that Christmas worked as a great alert, but it can happen ”, he says.

For now, the prospects remain optimistic and, in addition to the decrease in the number of beds allocated to patients with covid-19, there is also a break in the forecast of the number of professionals who will be needed to deal with the disease. According to APAH, there will be between 99 and 110 doctors, 659 and 739 nurses, and between 294 and 320 operational assistants.

As regards public health professionals, APAH estimates that between 243 and 295 people are needed to continue to carry out epidemiological surveys or maintain the necessary vigilance (from the first contact to the next) on suspected and confirmed cases.

The transmissibility index (Rt), which is one of the indicators to be taken into account for the deflation process and the one that has been closest to the risk line, should have an evolution in the order of 2%, APAH also mentions.

Rt nos 0,97

The APAH forecasts are made based on the reports of the Directorate-General for Health, which this Friday reported that, on the previous day, the Rt had risen again, settling at 0.97 – the arrival at value 1 , to happen, is a warning sign for one to put a possible brake on the country’s deflation.

The incidence (number of new cases in the last 14 days per 100 thousand inhabitants), another factor to be taken into account in deciding the pace of deflation, also increased slightly, on a day when 548 new cases of covid-19 and there were nine deaths associated with the disease, seven in the region of Lisbon and Vale do Tejo, one in the Center and one in the Algarve. The number of people recovered reached 743, and 513 people were hospitalized, 131 of whom were in the ICU.

The global covid-19 figures in Portugal tell us that, to date, there have been 822,862 positive cases in the country and 16,868 deaths. The people who recovered from the disease, on the other hand, settle at 779,655. There were still 26,339 active cases.