So how do you jump from 10 new cases to at least 24 – there could be many more, but in the press conference this Thursday António Costa did not clarify exactly what was the impact in the different counties – over the last two weeks of March? According to Rogério Abrantes, Mayor of Carregal do Sal, the answer is in a residence for the elderly in Parada, care of the parish priest of that parish for belonging to Cáritas, which is in the process of being closed, but which still shelters one person.
In an interview with the Observer, the mayor explained that the employees of the home continued to report to work, despite the fact that the residence has been closing doors since the beginning of the year, to accompany the only elderly person who still lives in the 10s that the residence used to to welcome. It was enough for one of the workers to have transported the virus to the residence for another five to be infected and, in the words of Rogério Abrantes, have “dragged the problem home”. From March 18 to April 1, the municipality had 34 new cases.
All epidemiological surveys related to this outbreak have been carried out and contacts have already been isolated. Last Wednesday, the municipality did not register any new cases of infection by the coronavirus; nor the following Thursday. This is what the mayor indicates that, within two weeks, when the Government makes a new assessment, he thinks that everything will be sufficiently controlled to lower the risk threshold and advance in the lack of definition. But “This little animal that walks around is invisible, we can’t always control it”, the Mint.
Of the 19 counties with an incidence of more than 120 cases over 14 days per 100 thousand inhabitants, the red line that gives reasons to the Government to stop the confinement in some regions of the country if everything continues like this within two weeks, six are especially worrying: Besides Carregal do Sal, also Moura, Rio Maior, Odemira, Portimão and Ribeira de Pena are more than double that red line. What’s going on over there?
Also in Moura, where new 14-day cases per 100,000 inhabitants have always been above the risk threshold set by the Government (although rising and falling from week to week), the unknowns continue. As the Government did not say what the exact incidence is in this municipality of Beja, saying only that it was above 240, it is not known whether the epidemiological situation has improved and is below 386 cases in two weeks per 100,000 inhabitants announced on Monday in the DGS bulletin; or it got worse and the numbers now surpass those last bills.
It is enough that Moura, with a population of about 15 thousand inhabitants, has 18 new people infected in two weeks to exceed 120 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants and enter the orange zone of the executive’s risk matrix. For the incidence to be above 240 cases, the county would have had to register at least 36 positive cases since mid-March. But according to the new database of VOST Portugal, published this Friday, the municipality detected 53 new cases in the last two weeks, resulting in an incidence of 349 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. That is, even though it is above the red lines of the Government, the proportion of cases decreased in relation to Monday’s balance sheet.
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