The researchers point to tens of thousands of additional deaths as the country accelerates its vaccination campaign. In parallel, hospitalizations of patients with the disease only increase in the USA. According to the disease control and prevention centers, the country is heading for a fourth wave of the pandemic.
The University of Massachusetts Amherst has a program called the COVID-19 Forecast Hub, which estimated a drop in the number of deaths to 6,028 by April 10, and then rise. To make this prediction, those involved were based on dozens of independent models, designing scenarios for up to four weeks in the future.
Meanwhile, public health experts have raised the expectation that vaccination in the United States would result in a steady drop in deaths during this period, but the scenario is different. A plateau (a stabilization in the number of new confirmed cases of the disease, with no significant increase or decrease referring to these numbers) of 1,000 deaths per day means 30 thousand deaths per month and much more until July 4th. It turns out that this is the date when US President Joe Biden predicted a possibility of returning to normal.
Even with these projections, it is worth looking at the following: vaccination in the country governed by Biden, currently aimed at people aged 65 and over, has the potential to prevent an increase in deaths as has happened in previous waves, considering that the public American elderly is present in four out of five deaths due to COVID-19. But there is hope: 73% of the elderly population in the United States has already received at least one dose of the immunizer.
Source: O Globo
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