This is the case of Novus Capital. According to Luiz Eduardo Portella, managing partner of the asset, with projections that take into account the pace of immunization abroad, it is worth to be more exposed to local stocks that kept their prices on the ground because of the paralysis of the activity. Shopping centers, consumer companies and the airline industry are now part of the portfolio.
“With the IFA [ingrediente farmacêutico ativo] arriving, Brazil manages to vaccinate 1 million people a day and in May it can close the group of elderly people over 60 years old and those who have comorbidities, with the second dose between July and August. Hence, the country enters a phase in which everything starts to improve ”, says Portella.
“Even though I know that there are more new people in hospitals, if the vaccination of the most vulnerable band is guaranteed, it manages to reopen the economy. And the ‘reopening trade’ will happen in Brazil. It didn’t happen because of the political problems, the internal crisis in the last few months. ”
For Portella, the “walling” of Congress and society against government excesses tends to lessen political tension, as the Planalto retreats for fear of an impeachment process. “There is a sectorial game here, we are seeing a great opportunity in companies that can go up 50%, 100% in the next months because they were off.”
According to the house’s stock manager, Rodrigo Galindo, the bad mood was exaggerated and resulted in low prices in good companies. “We recently traded almost everything we had out there for positions here. Enduring short-term volatility, I see a lot of movement ahead“, it says. “The ‘reopening trade’ here has not even started yet, it has already been well out there. So, for me, here is a lot to ‘price’. ”
With the mobility restrictions, shares of companies linked to the domestic economy were naturally impacted, But looking at 12, 24 months ahead, Mário Schalch, partner at Neo Investimentos, thinks that the prospects of delivering strong results are good.
At the exchange, the manager has sought alternatives in three groups: companies linked to the supply chain commodities such as Vale, Suzano or Klabin; in those that are undergoing structural changes, such as electronic commerce and health; and a last one of papers that were very impacted by the pandemic, but that combine prospects for a resumption of activity in the second half of the year, with positive operating results. “It is not a scholarship as a whole, there is a need to do a thorough analysis.”
The humiliated will be exalted
André Querne, from Rio Gestão, says that in the medium term vaccination will evolve and bring good prospects for actions linked to the local economy. “If there is any improvement from the fiscal point of view and the economy reopens, GDP will return,” he says. Even with the activity slipping, he mentions that on the stock exchange are the companies of better quality, which tend to leave strengthened, occupying the space of the smaller ones without so much breath to go through the crisis.
I do not block growth companies, Rio Gestão has positioned itself in names such as Magazine Luiza, B2W and Via Varejo. The flagship, however, has been Banco Inter, which started building the digital platform as a financial institution, grew the base and now moves into other areas, becoming a retail marketplace and other services. A third front that has been explored is that of utilities, large cash generators.
Novus works with the expectation that the economy will recover in the second half. In the first and second quarters, GDP should contract by 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively, but will move towards a 3% growth at the end of 2021. According to economist Daniel Silva, the financial market has been looking for the a balance between the current situation, which is still very negative, and the prospect of improvement in the rate of vaccination.
For him, what hindered the pace of vaccination until recently was the political uncertainty surrounding the Minister of Health and the delay in delivering immunizers until February. With the change in the ministry and an apparent improvement in the government’s alignment with Congress, there are chances of unlocking the vaccination, along with the accelerated deliveries of the Butantan Institute and Fiocruz.
“We started to see a greater regularity in the delivery of vaccines both in Butantan, with a daily supply of 1 million doses, and in Fiocruz, which delayed a little, but everything indicates that it is normalized”, says Silva. “With a better regularity of supply and the prospect of a gradual increase in deliveries, together with greater articulation between Executive and Legislative, we are more optimistic.”
At XP Asset, the assessment is that the vaccination schedule is “much better than it looks”. According to the estimates of the management team in the report, economic activity will suffer a lot until at least April with the worsening of the pandemic.
From there, the “vaccination campaign must accelerate substantially, it has everything to be a success and make hospitalizations and deaths plummet at the turn of the semester, making room for a strong economic reopening. The risks are “concentrated on the effectiveness of the vaccine against new strains”.
In terms of impact on the economy, the positive effects must be felt in services to families, such as food, tourism, transportation, services, people and education. “GDP is expected to jump in the third quarter of 2021,” says the house in a report.
— Foto: Getty Images
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