Covid-19: ES has the largest increase in the moving average of deaths in the country

ES has the highest percentage increase in the moving average of deaths in the country. Credit: Roverna Rosa / Agência Brasil

On Tuesday (30) Brazil registered 3,668 deaths in 24 hours by Covid-19, according to information from the Press Vehicles Consortium. In Espírito Santo alone, on the same day, 72 deaths were recorded in the same period of time, in addition to 61 deaths this Wednesday (31). With daily records of high numbers, the data collected by the Consortium also point out that the State started to figure as the one that presented the greatest percentage increase in the moving average of deaths in the country.

Moving average deaths in ES suffer the greatest percentage increase in the country. Credit: Reproduction | Sesa

According to an analysis by Sesa, the daily increase in the number of deaths from the new coronavirus in the State has been observed in the last epidemiological weeks. This increase also accompanies the growth of new cases of the disease in the face of the third phase of expansion, understood from Epidemiological Week (SE) 08, which covers the period from 21 to 27 February.

From ‘SE 08’ to the current week (number 13), the State has already notified approximately 1,125 deaths by Covid-19, according to data from the Covid-19 Panel. Also according to the Panel, on Tuesday (30), the 14-day moving average of deaths showed an increase of 88.84% compared to the previous day; the 7-day moving average of deaths increased by 12.32% compared to the previous day.

As Sesa explains, it is worth remembering that the moving average is a mathematical resource that allows analyzing whether the number of confirmed cases and / or deaths in the last week or in 14 days has increased or decreased, according to the same time interval as the weeks previous ones.

In a note, the secretariat stressed that preventive measures need to be maintained, with respect to social distance, the use of the mask and hand hygiene. In addition, along with respect for the restrictive measures adopted by the State.


The explanation of the increase that has been observed between the second half of February and the beginning of March, for Pablo Lira, IJSN’s CEO, can be summarized in three main factors:

  1. 01

    Result of ‘irresponsible’ agglomerations from the carnival period and the beginning of the year

    According to Lira, the remnants of these periods of the year, especially the carnival, which happened from February 15, brought results about 21 days later. “It is what is called the transmission window. After three weeks there was an increase that draws attention, in a short period of time, especially due to the crowding of young people,” he said;

  2. 02

    Increase in severe acute respiratory syndromes

    According to the IJSN’s president-director, the month of March already counts, as an expected seasonal factor, with the increase in respiratory syndromes, as is the case of Covid-19 itself;

  3. 03

    New variants in circulation in the national territory and in Espírito Santo

    Among the new strains identified, special attention in the State is for the United Kingdom variant, diagnosed in Lacen, and already present in most municipalities in Espírito Santo.


According to Pablo, it is also possible to talk about regional cycles of the pandemic. For the specialist, at the beginning of the spread of the virus in Brazil, there was an emphasis on states such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Amazonas and Ceará, still in 2020. Only afterwards there was an increase in Espírito Santo.

As an effect of the variants, such as that of Amazonas, they reproduced in other states of the federation. “However, in ES there is no prominence of the strain of Manaus. The behavior of the virus in states in the south of the country has been reproducing here, so we have to pay attention to these states. They had three weeks of very strong growth, our idea is spend less time like that, with the help of social isolation “, he said.

In this sense, what is expected, according to Lira, is that with the preventive querentena the contagion, the pressure of beds and the number of deaths will be reduced. “Here lies the importance of reinforcing for the population to do its part, preserving lives. The effects come in the window of 14 to 21 days, we hope to reduce the curve, preserve lives and slow the growth of cases and deaths”, he added.

In addition to quarantine, another measure taken by the Espírito Santo government that has been fundamental, according to Lira, is that it has not stopped the expansion of beds. “A week and a half ago we had more than 700 beds in the Intensive Care Unit, now there are almost 900. This was done prudently, but the expansion is limited and it is found in the number of health professionals, who are under a lot of stress the more beds, the more professionals you need “, he said.

Finally, the president of the IJSN also stressed the expectation of gaining momentum in vaccination, which is the only factor capable of effectively controlling the increase in the number of deaths. “And in that Brazil is walking at a slow pace. It started late and the pace is slow,” he concluded.

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