For specialists, the drop in the average number of new hospitalizations in the state is still small. They pointed out that, even though fewer people are hospitalized today than at the peak of March, the current daily admissions also burden the health system, which is unable to absorb the entry of so many new patients for a prolonged period.
Spokesmen for the São Paulo government, on the other hand, celebrated the slowdown, attributing the most recent data to the restriction measures of the São Paulo Plan. Executive coordinator of the state Contingency Center, João Gabbardo published a graph on social networks relating to the slowdown in hospitalizations and the restrictions of the plan. On Monday (5), Gabbardo declared that the restrictions of the most restrictive phases of the plan should be prolonged.
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The month of March was the most of the entire pandemic in the state of São Paulo, with almost double the number of deaths recorded in July 2020. Were 15.159 new victims in March, which on the 23rd had already become the month with the highest number of deaths. The previous monthly record, in July last year, was 8,234 thousand deaths.
Average new hospitalizations per day
The average number of new admissions for Covid-19 in the state of São Paulo reached its highest number in March 26, with 3,999 hospitalizations per day. Since then, the average has stopped rising, but daily admissions are still well above the previous level. On Monday (5), the moving average of hospitalizations was 3,025 new patients across the state. At the beginning of March, this average was 1,904 hospitalizations per day, considering infirmary and ICU beds (see the chart below).
According to researcher Marcio Bittencourt, from the Center for Clinical and Epidemiological Research at USP University Hospital, the small drop may be one of the first reflections of the more restrictive quarantine measures imposed by the state government.
The emergency phase, which provides for stricter rules than the red quarantine phase, came into force on the 15th.
“We cannot celebrate such a small gain, but it cannot be much greater because we have not taken sufficient measures to do so. The measures were not severe and intense enough. In addition, there hasn’t been enough time yet, these are the first reflexes. We will start to have the effects more clearly in another week or two, ”said Bittencourt.
For Ester Sabino, an immunologist and professor at the Institute of Tropical Medicine at the University of São Paulo (USP), it is difficult to assess whether the decline may continue in the coming days due to the advancement of coronavirus variants across the state.
“It is difficult to know the behavior of the curve before we know exactly the effectiveness of the vaccines that are in Brazil against the P.1 variant. But, if the population helps, reducing the exposure, I believe that this number will fall more quickly”, explained Sabino .
The doctor Márcio Bittencourt also remembered that, with the occupation above 90% in the ICUs of the state, doctors start choosing patients and, in some cases, not hospitalizing some patients who, in other settings, would be hospitalized.
“We have been choosing a patient for a long time and, in some places, doctors have started to use elective criteria for new hospitalizations. But it is more difficult to say whether this conduct will influence the number of new hospitalizations. Indirectly it is obvious that it influences, but it is difficult to measure. Because whenever you have a higher occupation, you have to be more restrictive and strict in the profile of new hospitalizations “, said the researcher.
On Monday (5), the average occupancy rate of public and private ICUs in the state of São Paulo was 90.6%. This index has been above 90% for more than 20 days.
In addition, the number of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 in hospital and ICU beds remains above the peak recorded in 2020. In this second, there were 29,500 patients hospitalized with coronavirus, 12,963 in ICU beds and another 16,547 in the ward.
This total reached 31,175 patients on the last day of March, and since then has stopped rising, partly due to the slowdown in new hospitalizations, in addition to the highs and deaths of old patients. In early March, 15,977 people were hospitalized with Covid-19 in SP.
Aerial photo of the Vila Formosa cemetery, in São Paulo, on March 23, 2021, during the Covid-19 pandemic – Photo: REUTERS / Amanda Perobelli
The state of São Paulo recorded 145 new deaths caused by Covid-19 this Monday (5). The state now totals 77,165 deaths caused by the coronavirus. The data were published by the State Department of Health.
The new records do not necessarily mean that the deaths happened overnight, but that they were computed in the system during this period.
Notifications are usually lower on weekends, holidays and Mondays, due to the delay in accounting.
The daily moving average of deaths, which considers the record of the last seven days, reached 697 deaths per day on Monday. The value is 31% higher than that registered 14 days ago, which for experts indicates an upward trend in the epidemic.
The state also registered 4,647 new cases of the disease in the last 24 hours, bringing the total since the beginning of the pandemic to 2,532,047 cases of Covid-19 in São Paulo.
The moving average of Covid-19 cases on Monday was 15,247 records per day. The number is 1% higher than that seen 14 days ago, which indicates a trend of stability in this indicator.
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