Coronavrus: Covid-19 cases are still high, but restrictive measures have helped to slow indicators

The number of cases of Covid-19 is still at a very high level in Paraná, but the Epidemiological Report of the Secretary of State for Health this Sunday (4) points to a drop for the fourth consecutive week, since the beginning of March. It is the first time in a month that the cases are far from 30 thousand a week. The balance takes into account the days of the confirmations, not the disclosure. Restrictions adopted by the State Government and city halls were crucial to contain the virus.

The ninth epidemiological week of 2021, established by the Ministry of Health, was between 28 February and 6 March. In the period, 37,831 cases were recorded, the highest level since December 2020 in Paraná. Since then there has been a reduction to 35,647 cases in week 10 (from March 7 to 13), 34,122 cases in week 11 (March 14 to 20), 29,585 cases in week 12 (March 21 to 27) and 15,478 cases in week 13 (March 28 to April 3). The last comparison points to a fall of almost 15 thousand cases.

It is the reflex of falls in the four macro-regions of Health. In the East there was a decrease between the epidemiological weeks 11 and 13, with a difference of around 8 thousand cases, while in the West, Northwest and North the falls come from week 9 (end of February and early March). In the macroregional West, the difference was 8 thousand cases between week 9 and week 13. In Noroeste, 5,000 cases.

According to the State Secretary of Health, Beto Preto, the numbers point to a reality of the last few days that helps to base the decisions of the State Government. However, he pointed out that the occupancy of ICU and infirmary beds is still very high, as a result of contamination that occurred in recent months, and that March was the worst month of the pandemic in Paraná, with more than 140 thousand cases and 4 thousand Deaths.

“Community transmission is a reality, which means that it is no longer possible to trace the source of the infection, indicating that the virus circulates in all regions. Even with this one-off drop, the numbers are still very high. We are facing the worst moment of the pandemic ”, said Beto Preto.

According to him, the number is influenced by the restrictive measures adopted by the State Government and city halls in the period and by the drop in the transmission rate (RT), which is below 1 – the index on Monday (5) is at 0, 83, the smallest in the country according to the Loft.Science website, which means that 100 people transmit the virus to 83, less than one to one.

MOVING AVERAGE – The moving average of cases by date of diagnosis in the State confirms the tendency of a decrease in the contamination by coronavirus, despite the circulation of more contagious and aggressive variants, such as the Amazon, and the increase in the positivity of the exams. On April 3, the seven-day moving average was 2,211 new cases daily – 54.6% less than the 14-day average.

DEATHS – The 13th epidemiological week was also the second since January to show a decrease in the number of deaths. According to the report, weeks 10, 11 and 12 had the highest peak of the period: there were 1,161.1,206 and 998 deaths, respectively.

Despite the reduction, the 13th week is still among the five with the highest indexes in the last six months, which correspond exactly to weeks 9 to 13 of 2021.

The seven-day moving average of deaths also points to a reduction. On April 3, the average was 83 deaths per day in the state. The number is 51.7% lower than the average of two weeks ago.

CITIES – Only six municipalities did not register deaths from Covid-19 in the State, one year and shortly after the first confirmation of coronavirus circulation. The cases reached all municipalities in the middle of last year. Paraná has already confirmed 853,611 cases and 17,182 deaths.

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