Finally, the results of computer simulations of the streaming of covid-19 during the outbreak on the Australian cruise Princess Diamond, one of the first contagion events outside China to be reported at the beginning of the pandemic. On February 20, 2020, a month after the cruise started, more than 700 of the 3,711 people on board tested positive for covid-19.
In July last year, the team from Parham Azimi, from the Harvard School of Public Health, in the United States, released the preliminary results of the simulations. The researchers analyzed 21,600 different scenarios to explain the spread of the disease on the ship. Each scenario tested hypotheses about the values of variables still unknown that could affect the viability of virus particles outside the human body.
The scenarios that best explained the outbreak are those that assume that more than 50% of infections occur through the inhalation of droplets emitted from the mouth and nose when speaking. Calls from aerosols, these tiny drops remain suspended in the air for more than 20 minutes and float several meters in an enclosure (“PNAS”, February 23).
* This article has been republished from the website Pesquisa Fapesp magazine under a Creative Commons license CC-BY-NC-ND. Read the original article here.
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