100,000 may die from covid-19 in one month in Brazil, survey shows

100,000 may die from covid-19 in one month in Brazil, survey shows
100,000 may die from covid-19 in one month in Brazil, survey shows

Pandemic: Brazil had 330,297 deaths until last Saturday, 3 (Silvio Avila / AFP)

The Institute of Health Metrics and Assessment, University of Washington, United States, predicts that the death toll in April by covid-19 can reach 100 thousand in Brazil. According to a survey by the institution, the death toll could jump from the current 330,297 recorded on Saturday to 436,000 on May 4.

On the 1st, the university designed three scenarios for the country, depending on factors such as the spread of virus variants, the use of masks and respect for social distance. That number could drop to 429,000 deaths if 95% of the population wears a mask in public.

The peak is expected to take place on April 24, when the death toll in 24 hours could reach 4,000.

The university also projects that by the end of the first semester, on July 1, Brazil will reach almost 600 thousand deaths in total, with 595 thousand lives lost in the worst scenario. In the case of the adoption of masks by almost the entire population, about 88 thousand lives would be saved, and the total would be 507 thousand.

The peak of the use of hospital resources such as ICU beds and respirators, should happen on the 12th, according to the IHME.

Check out the possible scenarios:

1- Worst case scenario

Total deaths in the pandemic in the next 30 days: 436,151

Total deaths in the pandemic by the end of the first half: 595,521

In this scenario, the university considers:

  • Mobility of non-vaccinated individuals following the pattern presented in the last year;
  • 25% of vaccinees returning to move as they did before the pandemic;
  • British, South African and Brazilian variants spreading among neighboring regions at the pace already registered in the United Kingdom;
  • Cases decreasing among those who were vaccinated 90 days ago.
2- Current scenario

Total deaths in the pandemic in the next 30 days: 434,702

Total deaths in the pandemic by the end of the first half: 519,018

In this scenario, the university considers:

  • Displacement of those who have not yet been vaccinated, remaining as they were in the last year;
  • All vaccinees returning to pre-pandemic levels;
  • Brazilian and South African variants beginning to spread in places where they had not yet arrived;
  • Vaccination efficiency being lower compared to the South African variant;
  • Use of masks falling among vaccinees.

3 – Scenario with the use of masks in public by 95% of the population

Total deaths in the pandemic in the next 30 days: 429,634

Total deaths in the pandemic by the end of the first half: 507,113

  • Mobility of non-vaccinated individuals following the pattern presented in the last year;
  • 25% of vaccinees returning to move as they did before the pandemic;
  • British, South African and Brazilian variants spreading among neighboring regions at the pace already registered in the United Kingdom;
  • Correct use of the mask being adopted by 95% of the population.

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