“The picture is of very low stocks at the end of the year, and for the next season as well. The climate will have to be very good to give the market some security. The three largest grain exporters in the world – the United States, Brazil and Argentina – have lower stocks. Brazil and the United States need very good harvests now to calm their domestic markets. The Argentine producer, on the other hand, does not trust the country’s currency, so he sells to buy assets ”, he says.
Fernandes says it is practically guaranteed that the American harvest will bring tension to the market, due to the so-called climate market. Depending on the course of the harvest, prices in Chicago can reach US $ 15 per bushel. If it is even bigger, it may even go beyond that, according to him.
Is it time to sell soy and corn?
The climate market in the United States should bring better price opportunities in Chicago, but Ênio Fernandes says that no one can guess where the stock market is going, much less the dollar.
“It is no use for Chicago to rise and the dollar to melt,” he comments. “If there is an external or internal problem that causes the dollar to rise above R $ 6, we will have a guaranteed margin for the next soybean and corn seasons.”
In light of this, he says it is healthy to work margins and guarantee costs. “We never sell everything or we do not sell. Depending on your level of safety, your average productivity over the past five years, the current margins are very positive, ”he says.
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