Moving average of deaths by Covid-19 breaks new record in DF: 78.3

Moving average of deaths by Covid-19 breaks new record in DF: 78.3
Moving average of deaths by Covid-19 breaks new record in DF: 78.3
The moving average of deaths by Covid-19 in the Federal District grew on Monday (5/4), reaching 78.3, the highest level ever recorded in the country’s capital. The increase occurs after the indicator falls during the holiday due to the underreporting that occurs during these periods.

78 deaths were reported among residents of the capital this Monday. Due to the delay in notifications, which tends to be even greater because of the holiday, deaths did not necessarily occur in the last 24 hours.

In comparison with that found 14 days ago, however, there was an increase of 67.6%, which confirms the upward trend in the number of deaths. Due to the incubation time of the new coronavirus, the experts’ recommendation to compare the day’s moving average with that of two weeks earlier was adopted. Fluctuations in the number of deaths or cases of up to 15% more or less characterize invariability.

Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, the DF has already notified 351,163 infections and 6,366 deaths due to the disease. In the last 24 hours, there were 78 deaths and 1,388 new infections.

Occupancy rate in ICUs

According to data from the DF Health Department (SES-DF), updated at 4:10 pm on Monday, 523 of the 568 ICU, Ucin and ICU operational beds for patients with Covid-19 are occupied, which is equivalent to 92.1% of the capacity of the public network. The number includes all beds that are not blocked or awaiting release.

In the private network, 408 of the 427 available adult beds are occupied – a rate of 95.55%. Monitoring bed occupancy rates is one way to measure the evolution of disease transmission.

Moving average

Tracking the progress of the Covid-19 pandemic based on absolute death or case data is far from ideal. This is because they can have very large daily variations, especially delays in records. On weekends, for example, it is common to notice a significant reduction in numbers.

To reduce this effect and produce a more accurate view, the moving average is widely used around the world. The rate represents the sum of the deaths reported in a week divided by seven. The name “mobile” is because it varies according to the total number of deaths in the previous seven days.

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