The commercialization of the 2021/22 soybean harvest in Brazil reaches about 15% at this moment, according to estimates by Brandalizze Consulting. The total would be slightly less advanced than that recorded in previous years. In Mato Grosso, the largest producer of oilseeds in the country, the percentage reaches 25%.
“The normal for Brazil, at the beginning of April, would be somewhere between 20% and 25%, and for Mato Grosso, already close to 35%. And these smaller numbers are due to two factors: one of them is the wait for more prices high, mainly in Chicago, and the other is the most capitalized producer, being able to wait a little longer to buy his inputs, paying in cash (not through exchanges) and, therefore, runs less soybeans “, explains Vlamir Brandalizze, consultant from Brandalizze Consulting.
Even so, according to him, exchanges continue to happen and are quite favorable, precisely because of the good prices of soybeans that have been practiced in a combination of high levels on the Chicago Stock Exchange and the dollar rising against the real. Many positions have been made in the past week and producers have taken advantage of the good times to lock in their production costs for the next season.
“The soybean farmer is using one of the smallest volumes of soybeans in recent years to buy the packages of inputs. And this is true even with almost all the most expensive inputs in reais,” says the consultant.
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Also according to Brandalizze, the tendency is for these negotiations to intensify now in April, especially at the end of this month and the beginning of the next, with companies bringing better opportunities to producers, seeking to guarantee more business.
ALTIST BIAS FOR THE NEW HARVEST
And prices for Brazil’s new grain crop – soybeans and corn – maintain their upward bias, according to the analysis of the Agribusiness Homeland’s director, Matheus Pereira. “We still don’t have a change in rhetoric that the demand for these products is higher than the growth in supply, we continue under the same scenario, a scenario that should last for another two or three years”, he says.
According to the country’s calculations, there is a deficit of almost 20 million tons in the global balance of supply and demand for corn and 10 million tons in soybeans.
“Tons that are being consumed from passing stocks, which are being consumed aggressively. So, this rhetoric keeps sustaining the prices of soybeans and corn in the long run and this only changes with a rationing of demand, and since we don’t have it, the only remedy for this market is even higher prices “, says Pereira.
Given this situation, there is an anxiety in the market among producers to effect their sales, lock in their costs and guarantee their inputs for the 2021/22 season, both in soybeans and in corn. Thus, even as Pereira points out, Pátria’s recommendation was to purchase fertilizers – two, three months ago – seeds 45/60 days ago – which have a restricted supply by region – and chemicals.
“The rural producer in Brazil, today, has seen soybean prices in the forward market around R $ 135.00 to R $ 145.00, R $ 150.00 on ‘special occasions’. And these levels guarantee a extremely lucrative remuneration, together with a dilution of the operating cost, which has already been fought in the past “, says the director of the consultancy.
Thus, what can be observed are the producers eager for the realization of new future sales in the forward market, advancing little by little with their commercialization, however, also guaranteeing themselves in the financial market.
“There is an upward trend, costs are low, so we will use this difference to build even safer protections for the forward market. So, we are not only advancing with sales in the physical market, guaranteeing revenue, but we are also putting recommendations on the soybean futures market for January and March 2022.
SOY X MAIZE
Thus, the new grain harvest in Brazil is expected to register a considerable increase. In its daily report, Brandalizze Consulting already brings initial prospects of 40 million tons, against 38.46 million for the 2020/21 season. “And this is mainly due to the excellent commercial performance of soybeans”, explains Vlamir Brandalizze.
“For the 2022 harvest, we continue with a projection of planting between 40.5 and 41 million hectares and harvesting between 138 and 143 million tons. In the last week, the new harvest gave chances of R $ 156.00 to R $ 160, 00 in the ports for May of next year “, adds the consultant.
And the favorable commercial performance is due to this tight relationship between supply and demand, which, as analysts and consultants have already explained, should take a few seasons to equalize. For the consultant, if current corn prices remain as high as those currently observed, corn could even increase its area in the summer harvest. For Matheus Pereira, the concentration of corn and its increase in area is focused on the second harvest.
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