In addition to Petrobras, who also represents the commodities sector in the month is the Vale, who remains in the lead, nominated again by no less than 15 houses. The novelties are on account of the steelmaker Gerdau, pointed nine times, and the PetroRio oil company, indicated by three brokerage firms.
Other news on the list in April are retailer Via Varejo and engine manufacturer WEG, pointed by four houses each. Complete the selection a B3, indicated eight times, and the Itaú Unibanco, nominated six, both representing the financial sector. The segment even lost strength during the month. In March, he had four representatives. Refrigerator shares close the list JBS and the software company Totvs they are also on the list, appointed by three brokerage firms.
The four shares that left the portfolio were Bradesco, Marfrig, BTG Pactual and Klabin.
A Value Portfolio brings together the 10 most recommended actions by participating brokerage firms. In all, there are 21 houses that choose five roles each month that they believe will be valued in the month.
The Value Portfolio comprises the brokerage firms Active, Ágora, Banco do Brasil, Banco Inter, CM Capital, Easynvest, Elite, Genial, Guide, Mirae, Modalmais, MyCap, Necton, Nova Futura, Órama, Planner, Santander, Singulare (former Socopa), Safra, Terra and XP Investments. The details of each broker and the performance of these portfolios can be found here.
Value x Ibovespa Portfolio
A Valor portfolio increased by 7.97% in March, when it accumulated an increase of 71% in 12 months. Meanwhile, the Ibovespa had a 6% increase in the month and closed the last 12 months with a gain of 59.73%.
See the details of the 10 actions indicated
For José Falcão Castro, an analyst at Easynvest, one of the justifications for choosing Vale is based on the results that the company delivered in 2020, which had strong growth and net profit of R $ 25 billion. For him, the numbers “put the company in a favorable position again”, as well as the judicial resolution of the Brumadinho tragedy.
“She settled with the Justice by paying billion-dollar damages and now tends to focus on its management to benefit from global demand and rising commodity prices, generating more value for shareholders“, he says.
For Alexandre Marques Filho, from Elite, the heating of national civil construction, with the launch of new real estate projects, may benefit Gerdau, as the demand for steel is expected to grow. For him, an eventual increase in interest rates should not hinder this increase, since they would remain low by the Brazilian standard.
“The good moment of construction should not be reversed with the increase in the Selic rate expected for this year, because even in the most bullish projection, interest rates would remain at historically low levels for Brazil “, he says.
The analyst also pointed out that the company showed “a good ability to capture this good moment through its initiatives for the retail segment”.
He also points out that the company’s American unit also takes advantage of a heating up of the real estate market in the United States, which guarantees higher revenues for the company, since the dollar continues to appreciate against the real.
“A strong vaccination process still in the first quarter helps to normalize the economy and keep the real at an excessively undervalued level, which is an asset during the sending of profits to the matrix in Brazil. In the international market, we observe that the price of the commodity remains high, with the Chinese appetite for steel and ore“, he says.
B3 continues in the selection of the most suitable for the Value Portfolio principally positive moment for variable income. This is because interest rates in Brazil, even with the recent Selic increase, remain at very low levels. Thereby, investors seek diversification on the stock exchange, which increases B3’s revenue.
“In 2020, a very challenging and traumatic year, the capital market in Brazil went through an unprecedented moment that combined volatility generated by the uncertainties that accompany the current crisis to a scenario of interest rates at historically low levels. Such dynamics had the effect a search by investors, mainly local ones, for diversification of their portfolios “, says Castro, from Easynvest.
The choice of Itaú by José Falcão Castro, an analyst at Easynvest, was based on the management quality of the company and the alignment it has with the interests of shareholders. The expectation of an increase in the profit of Brazilian banks this year was also pointed out by the expert. As Itaú has a leading position in the sector, Castro believes that it is a good choice.
“There is an estimate, which is a consensus in the market and we agree, that the four largest Brazilian banks may have a combined increase of 25% in net profit in 2021, considering a drop in provisions for doubtful accounts in the period. This trend has already been observed in the last quarters of 2020, with results driven by the reduction in provisions and which should continue in the coming quarters. Itaú, the bank that was the most conservative and made the most provisions in 2020, should show a good recovery this year“, he says.
For Órama analysts, the company has been able to deliver value to its customers with investments in the e-commerce operation. The result of this was seen in the balance sheet for the fourth quarter, which showed positive numbers.
“The fourth quarter was a consolidator for a good year for the company that, despite the difficulties imposed by the covid-19 pandemic, implemented several improvements and became an e-commerce company“, says the house in a note.
For analysts, “there is still value to be unlocked for the company, as the digitization process progresses“. One of the highlights, for them, is the banQi, digital bank launched by the company.
According to Banco do Brasil analysts, despite the expected volatility in Weg’s project activity due to the pandemic, the company recorded solid numbers in its balance sheet and benefits from having diversity both in its product portfolio and in the geographic areas in which it operates.
“Still, given the shock of the global supply chain and its effects on the industry’s production plan, with more expensive freight and component delays, Weg stated that it does not foresee a negative disruptive scenario for its operations,” say analysts Catherine Kiselar, Hamilton Moreira Alves and Renato Odo. So they “hope that the good result for the first quarter of this year reiterates the solidity of the paper “.
For MyCap analysts, the choice of the company’s shares is justified by the increased demand for your products, which causes not only sales to increase but the price of products to rise, which benefits the company’s revenue. As Petrobras meets both national and international demand, it should benefit from this increase.
Analysts point out that although there is a risk that government interventions will put pressure on the company’s stock price, the company has been reinforcing its sales plan for subsidiaries and debt reduction, focusing on oil and gas production and expansion of exploratory wells.
“Despite the risks involved, we understand that the company should maintain high margins, reduced leverage and focus on the most profitable businesses, discounting the multiples in relation to its peers“, say analysts André Ferreira, Weslley Mesquita and Julia Monteiro.
For Ágora analysts, despite the recent appreciation of the company’s shares, there is still room for further gains, since the price of oil remains high.
The broker also highlights the the company’s mergers and acquisitions agenda, which should make it even more valuable.
“A PetroRio is a pure oil exploration and production player, and the company’s business model is focused on acquiring mature assets to generate value through strategic moves“, says the broker.
They point out that, in addition to the three wells located in the Campos Basin, the company recently acquired yet another stake in the Wahoo field. “Now we believe that the acquisition of the remaining 35.7% of IBV’s participation should be a matter of time”, says the house.
For Nicolas Takeo, an analyst at Singulare, the company will continue to show strong operating results over the next quarters. He explains that this is a consequence of the more favorable external scenario for animal protein producers.
He also highlights the strategic partnership with the WH Group (the largest pig producer in the world) in the Chinese market, which can add around R $ 3 billion per year for the company.
“This view supports our recommendation to buy paper. Currently, theThe shares are being traded at around R $ 29.80, against a fair price of R $ 34“, he says.
For Santander analysts, the choice of the company is justified by the good results for the company in the fourth quarter. In the period, revenue grew 19% in the annual comparison, which was reflected in an increase in the company’s shares.
Another positive factor was the announcements for the acquisition of the digital marketing company RD and the update of its main software and the Techfin division (who takes care of financial services).
For analysts, Totvs “continues to present solid financial perspectives and will continue to grow both organically with the launch of new products, and through the acquisition of other companies with solutions complementary to their own.“.
— Foto: Getty Images
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