Calamity on the way – Economy

Calamity on the way – Economy
Calamity on the way – Economy
“Decreeing the calamity takes the pressure off him, don’t you think?”, Fired a financial market executive at the column when commenting on the extra friendly fire that Paulo Guedes has received, in the last few days, after the economic team shouted that the Budget approved by the Congress does not stand and that the Minister of Economy went to President Bolsonaro to say that the law is unenforceable, with the risk of impeachment.

If the decree of the state of calamity was already taken for granted before the Budget was approved, due to the seriousness of the pandemic, with the law approved with R $ 31 billion in additional parliamentary amendments based on underestimated projections, it was inevitable. A matter of a little more time for the plot that has developed by leaps and bounds since the election of the presidents of the Chamber and the Senate.

Before the vote on the Budget, the problem in the economic area was to make contingencies of at least R $ 20 billion to accommodate the impact of changes in economic parameters. After it was approved, the problems multiplied.

Now, the room for maneuver, which Budget managers always keep in the drawer as security to stop extra pressure, will be consumed to honor the government’s agreement with Congress to guarantee the extra R $ 16.5 billion in parliamentary amendments within of the Budget.

The main letter kept in the sleeve was precisely the possibility of an extra savings with measures to combat fraud and reduce expenses of the INSS that are about to come out, with the possibility of expenses with Social Security being below the forecast, as occurred last year. Scenario that will only become clear later. The parliamentarians, when voting a budget made up, anticipated this movement by force.

Let’s see the sequence:

Target of criticism, Guedes says he was informed of the agreement made by the government. The rapporteur Márcio Bittar denies and says that he discussed everything with Guedes’ team. In reaction, leaders of Centrão and other authorities directed artillery against the minister, with criticism that accumulates in the reserved rooms of Brasília.

The observation of many leaders, and which feeds political artillery to Guedes, is as follows: if he was communicated and did nothing, the minister supported, in practice, the agreement and his team was in the negotiation, yes, to make it feasible. No possibility of retreating now.

The President of the Chamber, Arthur Lira, does not give up his commitment and points out as a counterpoint that he is a politician who complies with the agreements made. Guedes will have to honor the agreement, even if his team’s budget area points out problems and contingency is necessary. That is the certainty and Guedes declared that he accepts.

The minister could not try to circumvent the amendment agreement, which, incidentally, guaranteed the emergency PEC with a device that gives private power to the President of the Republic to propose to Congress the decree of public calamity at the national level, not allowing Parliament to do so. do it unilaterally.

In this way, we return again to the initial problem, the decree of calamity, which suspends the tax rules for the realization of expenses and removes the “annoyance” that is for the political world, including Bolsonaro, this “chat” all about the economic area, which it cannot do this and it cannot do that because of the LRF and the spending ceiling.

One of the most urgent points of the moment to feed the pressure is the relaunch of the workload and wage reduction program or suspension of the workers’ contract, called BEm, which is being held. All because of a legal provision that requires compensation for expenses resulting from the creation of a new program, as shown in Estadão. The BEm will be the trigger that was missing for the president to call for calamity.

Strong articulation runs on the outside to guarantee renewal of guarantees for Pronampe, a credit program for small businesses. Leaders in one of the sectors most affected by the isolation measures, bars and restaurants, anticipate that 80% of companies will not be able to pay their employees’ salaries that expire on April 5. They have support from the Bolsonaro family, who articulate behind the scenes. Guedes said this week: in 2021, extraordinary measures are needed for “a fierce tail” of the current pandemic.

The question at the beginning of the column is already answered.

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