Study projects three possible pandemic scenarios in the country, considering factors such as wearing a mask and respecting social distance
Sandro Pereira / Estadão ContentResearch brings catastrophic figures on the progress of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil, with an estimated 100,000 deaths from the disease in April
The University of Washington, USA, through its institute of metrics and health evaluation, made a study that brings catastrophic numbers about the advancement of pandemic from Covid-19 in Brazil, with a forecast of 100 thousand deaths by the disease only in the month of April. The survey considers factors such as wearing a mask and respecting social distance. Only with failures in these situations, the death toll could jump from around 330,000 today to more than 436,000 on May 4.
To reach the numbers, the university designed three scenarios for the country. In the first, the research considers that the mobility of the unvaccinated ones following the pattern presented in 2020, in addition to 25% of the vaccinated ones moving back as they did before the pandemic; the proliferation of the British, South African and Brazilian variants at the pace already registered in the United Kingdom and the cases decreasing among those who were vaccinated 90 days ago. Thus, the projection is that the country will reach more than 434 thousand deaths by Covid-19 in the next 30 days.
The second scenario is seen as the worst. In this case, the university considers: the displacement of those who have not yet been vaccinated, remaining as they were in 2020; all vaccinees returning to pre-pandemic levels; the Brazilian and South African variants beginning to spread in places they had not yet reached; the efficiency of vaccination against the South African variant being low and the use of masks falling among vaccinees. With these characteristics, the projection is 436,151 deaths by the end of April.
The last scenario, on the other hand, is outlined with the use of masks in public by 95% of the population; mobility of non-vaccinated people following the pattern presented in the last year; 25% of vaccinees returning to move as they did before the pandemic; and the British, South African and Brazilian variants spreading at the pace already registered in the United Kingdom. This final cut points out that Brazil will reach 429,634 deaths from Covid-19.
* With information from reporter Fernando Martins
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