posted on 05/04/2021 06:00
(credit: Miguel Schincariol / AFP)
A projection by the University of Washington, in the United States, estimates that Brazil, until July 1, may reach the mark of 562,800 deaths due to the covid-19. The scary thing is that this scenario is considered the most optimistic, according to a study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), linked to the university. The almost 600 thousand lives lost to the new coronavirus refer to the most likely scenario, in which vaccines are distributed without delay, governments determine new restrictive measures lasting six weeks whenever the number of daily deaths exceeds eight per million inhabitants – this rate currently reaches 13 -, and vaccinees stop using masks only three months after the second dose, among other variables.
But this is not the only negative projection of the HMI: April may be the deadliest of the pandemic, with almost 100 thousand deaths. The peak should occur on the 24th, when it is estimated that more than 4,000 people will lose their lives in 24 hours. The projection takes into account the worst case scenario, in case all vaccinees move back normally, use fewer masks and the efficiency of the immunizer is lower compared to the Amazon variant of the new coronavirus.
“The updated projection of the pandemic by the University of Washington has just come out. Summary of Brazil: 562,863 dead by the 1st of July, 100 thousand in this month of April alone. At this rate, we must surpass the United States in absolute numbers in August. Sad! ”Wrote epidemiologist Ethel Maciel in her Twitter account. If the forecasts are confirmed, the tendency is for Brazil to surpass the United States in number of deaths by August.
Even at best, Brazil ends April with 418.9 thousand deaths and rises to 422 thousand, in the worst scenario. The difference occurs, above all, in the medium term, and the country can save 88 thousand lives if 95% of the population uses the mask correctly. The IHME projections are based on the figures released by the Ministry of Health, which yesterday added an additional 1,240 deaths, totaling 331,433 losses from the disease.
To make the projections, the study constitutes three scenarios and everyone considers that the strains from Brazil, South Africa and the United Kingdom will continue to spread. The growth of deaths projected for Brazil – the country today has the second largest number in the world, behind only the USA, which accounts for 554,500 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University – is seven times greater than estimated for North Americans.
While Brazil is experiencing the worst moment of the pandemic, with record deaths and collapsed hospitals, the United States is beginning to return to normal thanks to its accelerated vaccination program. According to data from the website Our World in Data, linked to the University of Oxford, 31% of the American population has already received at least one dose of the immunizer against covid.
The pessimistic projections for Brazil occur at a time when doses are scarce and it is difficult to print a faster pace to the vaccination campaign, with only 9% of the population having already received at least the first dose. The IHME model is the basis for the White House’s health policies.
Currently, there are 1,296,002 people being followed up with covid-19 and new 31,359 infections were confirmed yesterday. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Brazil has registered 12,984,956 cases and, of these, 11,357,521 have recovered, which represents 87.5% of the total.
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